The matchup between #1 Auburn and #5 Michigan promises drama, as the Big Ten Conference Tournament champs face off against the Southeastern Conference Regular Season winners. Auburn’s success is largely due to Johni Broome, a standout player eyeing the National Player of the Year title. His presence on the court is bolstered by teammates who excel at nailing shots from beyond the arc, forcing opponents into tough choices: guard the three-pointers or focus on Broome. It’s a strategy that has worked well, as Auburn has only dropped five games all season.
Michigan presents its own formidable challenge, featuring towering giants Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf controlling the paint. Their ability to defend the perimeter is noteworthy, holding opponents to just 30.9% shooting from three. The contest between these two teams will likely hinge on which coaching strategy prevails. Bruce Pearl might exploit his shooters to stretch Michigan’s big men, possibly pulling them out of their comfort zone on the perimeter. Alternatively, Dusty May could look to take advantage of Auburn’s lack of depth among true big men.
Despite Auburn’s consistent performance, they stumbled late in the season, barely holding onto the top seed. Similarly, Michigan’s season had its wobbles with three straight losses before their tournament rebound. As both teams are vulnerable, the key to winning could be in the details.
Auburn needs Broome to find his rhythm again. During the tournament, he’s been averaging 11 points and 11.5 rebounds with a shooting percentage under 41%, far from his typical numbers. Auburn also needs another player to step up, whether it’s Tahaad Pettiford, Miles Kelly, Chad Baker-Mazara, or Denver Jones. Baker-Mazara, in particular, is a player to watch. His experience and size could pit him against Michigan’s bigs, and his performance on both ends of the court could be crucial. Handling Michigan’s physicality while keeping composure will be critical for him.
Michigan’s goal will be to get their bigs effective looks near the rim without succumbing to Auburn’s anticipated defensive pressure. Goldin and Wolf need to find offensive opportunities that avoid direct double teams. This would otherwise lead to turnovers and easy scores for Auburn’s high-energy defense.
In terms of predictions, Michigan could pull off an upset with strong inside play. Auburn lacks the manpower in the paint to efficiently counteract them, potentially leaving the Tigers scrambling on defense. This could create open shots for Michigan, while also risking foul trouble for Auburn’s frontcourt — particularly for Broome, who only fouled out once this season in a loss against Duke. If Michigan capitalizes on free throws, they might edge out Auburn to secure a spot in the Elite 8 with a tight victory, 79-74.
Turning to the Michigan State vs. Ole Miss clash, Michigan State is a unique team, going against modern basketball trends with a focus on dominating near the basket and earning plenty of free throw opportunities, averaging 22.5 a game. Freshman Jase Richardson is leading the charge, proving that outside shooting isn’t a necessity when you’ve got strong rebounding and versatile scoring.
Ole Miss has a varied offensive arsenal with six players, including Sean Pedulla, scoring in double figures. This diversity keeps defenses guessing and allows different players to shine on any given night. Following an impressive win against Iowa State, Ole Miss is navigating uncharted territory, making their first Sweet Sixteen appearance.
For Ole Miss to take down the Spartans, they’ll need to hit their mark offensively, especially from three-point range. This is pivotal as Michigan State’s prowess on the boards could outmaneuver Ole Miss if their shots don’t fall. Matching up defensively with Michigan State could also present challenges. While a perfect execution might see Ole Miss through, a gritty, defensive battle is likely to lean in favor of the Spartans.
Michigan State boasts a solid defense against three-point shooters, holding opponents to 27.8% on the season. This discipline on defense aligns with Tom Izzo’s strategy, making them a tough nut to crack. I believe Michigan State will extinguish Ole Miss’s Elite Eight hopes with a 72-58 victory.
Looking ahead to the Final Four, the prospect of a Michigan vs. Michigan State showdown is tantalizing. Historically, Michigan State has dominated their head-to-head meetings this season with convincing wins, 75-62 and 79-62. While Michigan has what it takes to win and has quality players, Michigan State seems ready to secure another Final Four berth under Tom Izzo. My prediction? Michigan State triumphs, 77-73, stamping their ticket to the big dance.
