You’d be making a mistake to underestimate Red Bull in the world of Formula 1. When Red Bull took over the struggling Jaguar team back in 2004, many predicted they’d crash and burn. Instead, Red Bull soared. Even Lewis Hamilton once downplayed them as “just a drinks company” compared to the legendary McLaren or Ferrari, a comment that didn’t age well.
After last year’s downturn from an initial winning streak to securing just two wins in the final 14 races, it’s easy to think Red Bull’s slump would continue with their RB21 car. But that’s a gamble, given how Red Bull has been quietly keeping an eye on its competitors, particularly McLaren’s recent preseason spotlight, and Lewis Hamilton’s and Ferrari’s upcoming F1 gathering in London. Red Bull is biding its time, ready to reclaim its position at the pinnacle of grand prix racing.
A few pressing questions linger as Red Bull gears up to equip Max Verstappen with a car that could clinch his fifth consecutive drivers’ championship. The elephant in the room is Adrian Newey’s departure, which has been on the cards long before his official exit last May. Newey confessed to feeling sidelined, with a technical team eager to prove their worth beyond his shadow. Reflecting on last year, Newey mentioned on the High Performance Podcast that the team needed to demonstrate they could succeed independently, a sentiment he respected.
Newey had been pointing out flaws in the car even during the dominant 2023 run which saw Red Bull triumph in 21 out of 22 races, flaws that Verstappen’s skill often overshadowed.
“It extended into early ’24, but the car remained competitive enough,” Newey recently told Germany’s Auto Motor und Sport. His concern was apparent, though his observations seemed to go unheeded by others in the organization. From his outsider’s perspective, Newey noted their inexperience may have led them to stick stubbornly to a flawed approach, making issues so pronounced that even Verstappen found the car hard to handle.
Red Bull was grappling with balance issues throughout 2023 and into 2024, partially masked by performance advantages until McLaren introduced game-changing upgrades in Miami. Newey’s genius paired with practical solutions should have guided corrections, yet Red Bull didn’t pivot soon enough. The team was also challenged by an outdated wind tunnel—a remnant from the Cold War era, even though its internal setup is sound, it’s becoming overly temperature-sensitive. Still, the philosophical belief in their ingrained methods overshadowed the pressing need for change.
When the ground effect regulations came into play in 2022, Red Bull’s success began with Newey’s suspension design in the RB18, achieving significant platform control. By keeping the car low and stiff enough, they enhanced downforce from the venturi tunnels and kept porpoising at bay. This was coupled with efficient sidepod designs and intricate underfloor layouts, offering a leg up on rivals. But as enhancements continued, so did the balancing issues, stretching into 2023.
The ride-related issues combined with inherent tendencies for low-speed understeer and high-speed oversteer pushed Red Bull towards a performance ceiling. Compromising on these settings was feasible while they led the field, but as competitors closed the gap, their margin for error shrank. McLaren’s Miami advancement tipped the scales, introducing flexible front wings that better handled corners at different speeds—something Red Bull hadn’t adapted to.
Despite struggles, Red Bull realized their seemingly solid lead was no longer secure. Not until the race in Monza that September did they address the situation, rolling out a revised package for the United States Grand Prix in October, which aided victories in Brazil and Qatar.
However, it was McLaren’s responsive front wing that truly outperformed, maintaining front-end grip at lower speeds while balancing at higher speeds—a system not matched by Red Bull’s configurations. Misjudgments around political maneuverings with the FIA over their competitors’ flexible wing designs left Red Bull irked. Unable to exploit new interpretations of the rules due to budget constraints, Red Bull faced limitations. Yet, 2024 might see Red Bull turning the tables, especially with planned reductions in allowable wing flex—change that might play in their favor.
Red Bull’s new car presents a chance to align its suspension closer to McLaren’s model, indicating a possibility for a resurgence if the lessons from last year are implemented. Otherwise, doubts about thriving without Newey will linger.
Even with a contender in the RB21, internal challenges remain. Liam Lawson replacing Sergio Perez brings uncertainties. With only 11 F1 starts, Lawson’s potential as Red Bull’s number two driver is not yet proven, though the team hopes for an upgrade over Perez. Strong support for Verstappen will be crucial, especially given McLaren and Ferrari’s roster strength.
Meanwhile, Verstappen’s future feels precarious. Despite a 2028 contract, he’s flirted with Mercedes, and Aston Martin looms as a future prospect, especially with its links to Newey and Honda. The looming regulations of 2026 and Red Bull’s first self-produced power unit add further ambiguity, potentially steering Verstappen to consider alternate teams.
Should Red Bull flounder in ’25, a domino effect could unfold: losing Verstappen and potential struggle with new engine rules come ’26. Consider also internal political tensions, and Red Bull might face a lengthy dry spell similar to the post-dominance years where wins were scarce. Some have even speculated that if 2025 repeats last year’s strains, Verstappen might take a break midseason—a feasible choice given his market power. On the flip side, a promising 2025 could see Verstappen sticking around, successful new power unit launches, and past troubles fading away.
The forthcoming period is vital in Red Bull’s narrative. History tells us Red Bull has a knack for defying the odds. So as the pre-season buzz favors McLaren, Ferrari, and Mercedes, it’s wise not to disregard the lingering might of Formula 1’s reigning powerhouse.
