You can’t help but scrutinize testing sessions. Every team does it, and drivers do, to varying degrees too. These sessions, though collaborative, provide the first glimpse of the competitive landscape.
This week’s test in Bahrain threw a wrench in the works more than usual. The uncharacteristically cool weather, gusty winds, and random rain showers mixed things up. As a result, the conditions we saw were far from the norms expected throughout the season, with cars and tires prepped for warmer climes.
This meant the pecking order we glimpsed was shaped by these odd conditions—there’s not much it’ll tell us about what to expect in Melbourne. Nonetheless, there were insights to be had. McLaren’s team principal, Andrea Stella, found himself fielding questions about McLaren’s performance, especially after Lando Norris delivered a strong race simulation. Oscar Piastri followed up with a similar performance the next day. While there were areas in need of improvement, McLaren showed a promising trajectory in their testing program.
Over at Red Bull, things weren’t as seamless. They clocked just 304 laps, a number that pales in comparison to Mercedes’ impressive 458 laps, with only Aston Martin close with 306. Yet, fewer laps don’t necessarily equate to less progress.
Liam Lawson experienced a hiccup on Thursday with a drop in engine water pressure but still came away optimistic about the car by the end of his stint. This was before Max Verstappen took an updated car for a spin on Friday. Although Red Bull didn’t run a race simulation, team advisor Helmut Marko hinted to German media that they might match McLaren’s potential pace, even as their technical director, Pierre Wache, took a more reserved stance.
“We didn’t have a smooth test as expected but finding issues here is better than later on, and that’s why we’re here – to understand the car,” Wache shared. Despite the unrepresentative weather, they strived to tap into the car’s potential and get a feel for different setups, largely achieving their objective.
“At this point, it’s tough to pinpoint a starting order for Melbourne. Four teams seem swift, us included, but we largely stuck to our program rather than watch others. I’m not completely satisfied because the car didn’t always react as hoped, but we’re on a positive path. The steps forward just weren’t as large as we’d anticipated. There’s groundwork to be laid for the first race and further developments.”
Ferrari initially seemed a strong contender early in the tests, but they gradually slipped back. Charles Leclerc noted that they still had some sorting to do back at Maranello. No alarm bells yet, but he acknowledged the need for improvements.
“Though testing is self-centered, we do glimpse at competitors during race runs, not knowing their conditions,” Leclerc remarked. While it’s an early look at potential rankings, many uncertainties remain. He mentioned it was crucial for identifying where they lagged behind not just others, but also in terms of personal expectations. More preparatory work was needed for Melbourne.
The crux for Leclerc was dialing in the Ferrari, a task complicated by the weather. Last year, the team struggled in cooler climates, so higher temps in Melbourne might naturally play to their strengths. Mercedes, on the flip side, thrived in the cold last year. Their standing next to Ferrari is intriguing.
“I’m worried,” joked Toto Wolff, acknowledging the peculiar performance dip in conditions they should excel in. Whether they’ve balanced across climates better now or lost their cold-weather edge remains to be seen. Wolff humorously mused about it, leaving a question mark on their old advantage.
If pushed to rank teams, I’d slot McLaren at the top, followed by Red Bull, then Ferrari, with Mercedes trailing. Despite a bustling midfield, a top-four bracket seems to persist. Mercedes had a better final outing, but Ferrari’s potential to tap into hidden performance left me betting on them for improvement. The takeaway? None of the teams currently finds themselves comfortably at the top. Margins are tight, indicating that team orders could shuffle significantly from race to race, a pattern reminiscent of last year. A year ago, leaving testing painted a clearer picture, partly thanks to the first race coinciding with the testing venue.
The people behind each team are more cautious than ever in predicting the pecking order for the first race. Given last year’s roller coaster ride, it’s understandable. While Bahrain offered a preliminary painting, it’s still hazy. Melbourne will undoubtedly redraw it, as will China, then Japan.
Isn’t that an exciting prospect?
